Animation of the Projected Change in Mean Annual Precipitation Relative to 1961 to1990 Average: Year 1995 to 2070

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The animation displays maps of precipitation differences from the 1961 to 1990 reference period. Percentage changes are shown since a given change in precipitation will be more important in a region of low average precipitation than in a region of high average precipitation. The precipitation changes are those simulated by the global climate model (CGCM2).

The maps display the sum of the climate change "signal" and of "natural climate variability". The climate change "signal" is the result of projected changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and aerosol loadings due to human activities (following the IS92a scenario). The "natural variability" includes precipitation fluctuations, both positive and negative, which occur naturally and independently of the human induced climate change.

This natural variability is a feature of the animation at all times since the human induced climate change signal with respect to precipitation is comparatively weak over Canada. On average precipitation increases and this is seen in the shift toward more green and blue colours toward the end of the animation.

Although many Canadian regions are projected to experience modest increases in average precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff also tend to increase in a warmer climate so that a decrease in soil moisture may nevertheless result.

The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis of Environment Canada developed the climate model and produced the simulation. The interpolation of the data to finer spatial scales and the preparation of the data and images for the animation were done by the Canadian Forest Service of Natural Resources Canada. The changes shown are five year averages recalculated every year (for example, the change in precipitation labeled 1995 is the average of the simulated changes for 1991 to 1995). For global climate change animations, please go to animations created by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis of Environment Canada.